This speaker argues that farmers who invested in organic farming equipment should resume synthetic farming because it is financially unwise to continue organic farming. The speaker cites studies showing that farmers who switched to organic farming last year had tower crop yields. Based on these studies, the speaker concludes that the relatively inexpensive investment in organic farming equipment cannot justify continuing to farm organically. The speaker also claims that continuing to farm organically is financially unwise because it is motivated by environmental, not economic, concerns. The argument suffers from three problems.
One problem with this reasoning involves the vague comparative claim that farmers who switched to organic farming fast year had lower crop yields. We are not informed whether the survey compared last years organic crop yields with yields from previous years or with those from synthetic farms. Moreover, the author provides no evidence about how the survey was conducted. Lacking more information about the survey, we cannot accept the speakers conclusion.
Secondly, the speaker assumes that the low crop yields for first-time organic farmers last year are representative of crop yields for organic farmers overall. However, more experienced organic farmers might have had much better crop yields last year. Also, the first-time organic farmers might improve their own crop yields in future years. Moreover, last years yield may have been unusually low due to poor weather or other factors, and thus not indicative of future yields.